Corks, Kegs and Commentary

Events, news and musings from the crew at Hayden Beverage Company. Information on beer, wine and events in the state of Idaho

Random Reading on Intellectual Self Delusion

Dodds Hayden - Monday, March 26, 2012

"We humans are the victims of an asymmetry in the perception of random events.  We attribute our success to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control, namely to randomness...94% of Swedes believe that their driving skills put them in the top 50% of Swedish drivers; 84% of Frenchmen feel that their lovemaking abilities put them in the top half of French lovers. "
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his book, The Black Swan

Also from the book:

"You cannot ignore self delusion. The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know"

How can I tie Swedish driving back to beverages? Let's see. The more you know, the more you realize you don't know (if you are honest with yourself). There is always more to learn. Our products are a great example of that.

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